Case study
Hospitality market entry
BDN sized demand, regulatory fit, and capex for a hospitality operator planning a Victoria rollout.
Primary surveys in three postcodes, competitor pricing scans, and liquor licensing timelines fed a board memo with base and downside IRR cases.
Labour availability and planning overlays were scored separately from demand so directors could gate spend on non-market risks—not just revenue assumptions.
| Scenario | IRR | Payback | Board decision |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base case | 14.2% | 4.1 years | Proceed phase 1 |
| Downside | 9.1% | 5.8 years | Gate on lease terms |
Did the client proceed?
Phase one opened two sites; phase two paused pending lease renegotiation as modelled.
What data was primary?
Trade surveys, site visits, and licensing timelines—not desktop estimates alone.
Who presented to the board?
BDN partner with the client's development lead; downside case drove lease gate conditions.
"Phase two paused exactly when the downside case said it would—we avoided a bad lease, not just a bad spreadsheet."
Field work
Site visits, liquor licensing timelines, and competitor pricing scans in three postcodes fed base and downside IRR models presented to the board.
Labour availability and planning overlays were scored separately from demand so the board could gate spend on non-market risks.
Board outcome
Phase one opened two sites; phase two paused pending lease renegotiation exactly as the downside case modelled.
Size your expansion
Name the geography and format.